Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California\u27s Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios

The biogeochemistry of carbon across a gradient of streams and rivers within the Congo Basin

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and inorganic carbon (DIC and pCO2), lignin biomarkers and the optical properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were measured in a gradient of streams and rivers within the Congo Basin (Republic of Congo), with the aim of examining how vegetation cover and hydrology influences the composition and concentration of exported fluvial carbon (C). Three sampling campaigns (February 2010, November 2010 and August 2011) spanning 56 sites are compared by sub-basin watershed land cover type (savannah, tropical forest, and swamp) and hydrologic regime (high, intermediate, and low). Land cover properties predominately controlled the amount and quality of DOC, chromophoric DOM (CDOM) and lignin phenol concentrations (∑8) exported in streams and rivers throughout the Congo Basin. Higher DIC concentrations and changing DOM composition (lower molecular weight, less aromatic C) during periods of low hydrologic flow indicated a shift from rapid overland supply pathways in wet conditions to deeper groundwater inputs during drier periods. Lower DOC concentrations in forest and swamp sub-basins were apparent with increasing catchment area, indicating enhanced DOC loss with extended water residence time. Surface water pCO2 in savannah and tropical forest catchments ranged between 2600 and 11922 µatm, and swamp regions contained extremely high pCO2 (10598-15802 µatm), highlighting their potential as significant pathways for water-air efflux. Our data suggest that the quantity and quality of DOM exported to streams and rivers is largely driven by terrestrial ecosystem structure and that anthropogenic land-use or climate change may impact the composition and reactivity of fluvial C, with ramifications for regional C budgets and future climate scenarios

Using SAS functions and high resolution isotope data to unravel travel time distributions in headwater catchments

Acknowledgments. We are grateful to the European Research Council (ERC) VeWa project (GA335910) and NERC/JIP SIWA project (NE/MO19896/1) for funding. A.R. acknowledges the financial support from the ENAC school at EPFL. C.B. acknowledges support from the University of Costa Rica (project 217-B4-239 and the Isotope Network for Tropical Ecosystem Studies (ISONet)). Data to support this study are provided by the Northern Rivers Institute, University of Aberdeen and are available by the authors. The authors wish to thank Ype van der Velde, Arash Massoudieh, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy and an anonymous referee for the useful review comments.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

PATHWAY CONNECTIVITY IN AN EPIGENETIC FLUVIOKARST SYSTEM: INSIGHT FROM A NUMERICAL MODELLING STUDY IN KENTUCKY USA

Fluviokarst landscapes are dominated by both fluvial and karst features. Interpreting hydrologic pathways of fluviokarst can be confounded by the unknown connectivity of the various flow regimes. A combined discrete-continuum (CDC) hybrid numeric model for simulating the surface and subsurface hydrology and hydraulics in fluviokarst basins was formulated to investigate fluviokarst pathways. This model was applied to the Cane Run Royal Springs basin in Kentucky USA. A priori constraints on parameterization were avoided via multi-stage optimization utilizing Sobol sequencing and high performance computing. Modelling results provide evidence of hydrologic pathways dominated by fracture flow, epikarst transfer and runoff. Fractures in karst basins with high fracture-matrix permeability ratios may influence both springflow and streamflow. Swallet features can be as important as spring features as they are sink features in streamflow during hydrologic events. Inflections in spring hydrographs represent shifts in the surface-subsurface connectivity via the fractures, as opposed to shifts in dominant storage zones. Existing methods of dual- and triunal hydrograph separation of karst springflow may not be directly transferrable to fluviokarst springs. The numerical model herein has advantages of suggesting dominant pathways in complex terrane and highlighting unforeseen surface-subsurface connectivity. However, disadvantages include computational expense and previous site studies

Urban Evolution: The Role of Water

The structure, function, and services of urban ecosystems evolve over time scales from seconds to centuries as Earth’s population grows, infrastructure ages, and sociopolitical values alter them. In order to systematically study changes over time, the concept of “urban evolution” was proposed. It allows urban planning, management, and restoration to move beyond reactive management to predictive management based on past observations of consistent patterns. Here, we define and review a glossary of core concepts for studying urban evolution, which includes the mechanisms of urban selective pressure and urban adaptation. Urban selective pressure is an environmental or societal driver contributing to urban adaptation. Urban adaptation is thesequential process by which an urban structure, function, or services becomes more fitted to its changing environment or human choices. The role of water is vital to driving urban evolution as demonstrated by historical changes in drainage, sewage flows, hydrologic pulses, and long-term chemistry. In the current paper, we show how hydrologic traits evolve across successive generations of urban ecosystems via shifts in selective pressures and adaptations over time. We explore multiple empirical examples including evolving: (1) urban drainage from stream burial to stormwater management; (2) sewage flows and water quality in response to wastewater treatment; (3) amplification of hydrologic pulses due to the interaction between urbanization and climate variability; and (4) salinization and alkalinization of fresh water due to human inputs and accelerated weathering. Finally, we propose a new conceptual model for the evolution of urban waters from the Industrial Revolution to the present day based on empirical trends and historical information. Ultimately, we propose that water itself is a critical driver of urban evolution that forces urban adaptation, which transforms the structure, function, and services of urban landscapes, waterways, and civilizations over time

Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California

Understanding the uncertainty in the projected impacts of climate change on hydrology will help decision-makers interpret the confidence in different projected future hydrologic impacts. We focus on California, which is vulnerable to hydrologic impacts of climate change. We statistically bias correct and downscale temperature and precipitation projections from 10 GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. These GCM simulations include a control period (unchanging CO2 and other forcing) and perturbed period (1%/year CO2 increase). We force a hydrologic model with the downscaled GCM data to generate streamflow at strategic points. While the different GCMs predict significantly different regional climate responses to increasing atmospheric CO2, hydrological responses are robust across models: decreases in summer low flows and increases in winter flows, and a shift of flow to earlier in the year. Summer flow decreases become consistent across models at lower levels of greenhouse gases than increases in winter flows do

Assessing performance of conservation-based Best Management Practices: Coarse vs. fine-scale analysis

Background/Questions/Methods
Animal agriculture in the Spring Creek watershed of central Pennsylvania contributes sediment to the stream and ultimately to the Chesapeake Bay. Best Management Practices (BMPs) such as stream bank buffers are intended to intercept sediment moving from heavy-use areas toward the stream. The placement of BMPs on a farm is generally based on untested assumptions about flow paths. Most often, a straight-line distance from the heavy-use area to the stream is assumed to be correct. Our objective was to compare the straight-line path to hydrologic flow paths calculated from fine-, medium- and coarse-grained Digital Elevation Models (DEMs; 1m, 10m, 30m) for 471 mapped heavy-use points within 100m of the stream. The 30m DEMs are the most widely available and require the least processing time. We anticipated that the flow path distance would be longer than the straight-line distance in all cases, that the finest resolution would lead to the most accurate measurement, but that the difference might not be great enough to justify the increased costs. Understanding the changes in path length and direction calculated using more complex methods and higher-resolution source data will enable us to make recommendations on methods to be used in developing conservation management plans.

Results/Conclusions
The medium-(10m DEM) and fine-resolution data (1m DEM) had the smallest differences between the hydrologic flow path and straight-line path: median differences in path length of 20 m for both the 1m and 10m DEMs, and 51m for the 30m DEM. Hydrologic flow paths were significantly longer than straight-line paths for all three scales; BMP placement based on straight-line distances may not be the most effective. Although the overall difference was significantly positive, calculations on the 30m DEMs sometimes produced straight-line paths that were longer than the hydrologic flow paths, apparently due to inaccuracies in the data. Where fine-scale DEMs are available, BMPs might be more effectively situated by considering the corresponding drainage pathways. The very different results produced at the three scales demonstrate that using the finest-grained elevation data may substantially improve placement of BMPs intended to mitigate for heavy animal use areas. The use of 30m DEMs for this purpose should be avoided. Fine-grained data such as 1m-resolution LiDAR-derived DEMs are available for Pennsylvania through PAMAP, and can be incorporated in the planning stages of BMP placement ultimately resulting in reducing agricultural sediment and nutrient loadings into local watersheds and the Chesapeake Bay